SEID Intel by Oluwatoyin

A market can be full of customers and still be difficult to win.

Nigeria is a good example. With over 200 million people and more than 123 million broadband subscriptions, the scale is hard to ignore. Millions of people are already ordering rides, streaming films, shopping and paying for services online. The demand is visible.

But demand is only one part of the equation.

Uber’s recent exit puts that into perspective. After 12 years in Nigeria, the company decided to leave, even as other ride-hailing platforms continue to operate. Uber did not point to one single reason for the decision, but the industry it leaves behind looks very different from the one it entered.

Developments like this are what we dissect at SEID. Not simply because a company has left, but because of what the decision can tell us about the market around it.

Take ride-hailing.

What looks like one simple trip is actually several different calculations happening at once. The passenger wants a reliable car, a reasonable fare and a predictable experience. The driver is thinking about fuel, maintenance, traffic, commissions and what will actually be left at the end of the trip. The platform is trying to keep enough drivers available, prices competitive and transactions within the app.

Those interests do not always line up neatly.

As operating costs rose, some drivers began negotiating fares above the amount shown on apps, while flexible models cash-based, negotiable pricing gained popularity. Bolt even tested its own fare-negotiation feature in Nigeria between late 2024 and early 2025 before discontinuing the pilot.

From the driver’s perspective, cash or a negotiated trip can offer more control over what a journey earns. From the passenger’s side, however, being asked to renegotiate a fare after booking can make the experience less predictable. And for the platforms, too much activity moving outside the structure of the app can make pricing, service standards and the overall experience harder to manage.

So there is no single villain in the story.

There is a market trying to find a price and operating model that works for everyone involved.

And that is where the opportunity becomes interesting. If owning and maintaining a vehicle is getting harder, perhaps more value sits in vehicle financing, leasing and fleet management. If fuel is a major pressure point, alternative-energy mobility becomes more relevant. If drivers and passengers want greater flexibility, there may be room for different payment, pricing and commission models.

We see this need to adapt outside mobility too.

Netflix invested about US$23.6 million in Nigeria between 2016 and 2022, compared with roughly US$125 million in South Africa, despite Nigeria’s much larger population. It did not exit Nigeria when conditions changed; reports instead pointed to adjustments in some local production activity.

Different businesses will respond differently.

Some leave. Some adapt. Others find a model that gives them room to grow.

And perhaps that is the real lesson behind the numbers.

A population of 200 million can tell you that the potential is there. It cannot tell you what people will pay, how the people delivering the service will make money, or what a company needs to change along the way.

A big market gets you interested. Understanding how value moves between everyone in it is what determines whether the business works.

One story that caught my attention this week was Africa’s push to change how its credit risk is understood globally.

The African Union will launch the African Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) on October 7 in Mauritius, giving African governments and companies an additional credit assessment alongside Moody’s, S&P and Fitch. The agency is meant to bring more local context into how African economies are assessed, rather than replace the existing global players.

Why this matters is simple: credit ratings shape how investors see risk, and that affects how much countries and businesses pay to borrow. If AfCRA can produce credible, independent assessments, it could support fairer risk pricing, improve access to capital and potentially reduce borrowing costs across the continent.

The real test will be trust. An African perspective is useful, but for AfCRA to have real economic impact, investors will need to believe in the quality of its data, the independence of its ratings and the consistency of its analysis.

Here are a few other headlines that also caught my attention this week:

• IN DETAIL: Financial industry leads trading activities as NGX deals increase to N210bn. The market clearly came to work this week. 
• Tax reforms cut state, LGA levies from over 50 to nine, says JRB. Nigeria’s tax list just went on a diet. 
• FG unveils land transport policy to integrate roads, railways, inland waterways. Nigeria’s transport system is getting the “let’s work together” memo. 
• Nigeria, Ghana, South Africa… US extends duty-free trade deal with 32 African countries. The trade window stays open a little longer. 
• NRS chair says regulations remain major hurdle to Lagos financial centre as FG inaugurates steering committee. You can build the financial centre, but first, build the rules around it. 
• CPPE urges FG to turn GDP growth into more jobs, higher incomes. GDP is growing. Now let’s see it in people’s pockets. 
• NIPR Lagos chapter to award practitioners using AI to advance communication industry. AI is officially getting its flowers in PR. 
• CBN: Nigeria recorded $3.8bn remittance inflows in seven months — up by 50.2%. The diaspora said, “we’ve got you.” 
• FG says no oil revenue, strategic assets were pledged as collateral for $5bn FAB loan. They are saying the loan is large. The collateral is less dramatic than you think. 

 

Just leaving that here.